{"id":65478,"date":"2021-11-26T14:35:34","date_gmt":"2021-11-26T14:35:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.artefact.com\/?post_type=news&p=65478"},"modified":"2024-09-20T17:45:47","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T16:45:47","slug":"the-path-to-developing-a-high-performance-demand-forecasting-model-part-4","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/www.artefact.com\/zh\/blog\/the-path-to-developing-a-high-performance-demand-forecasting-model-part-4\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f00\u53d1\u9ad8\u6027\u80fd\u9700\u6c42\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u8def - \u7b2c\u56db\u90e8\u5206"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4f5c\u8005<\/h2><\/div>\"Image\"

\u5361\u65af\u62c9-\u66fc\u82cf\u91cc<\/h3><\/div>

Data \u9ad8\u7ea7\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff08Artefact<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

<\/span><\/a><\/span>

\u9605\u8bfb\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6587\u7ae0<\/u><\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/span><\/div>

.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u5df2\u4e0a\u67b6\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5e38\u89c4\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u4e0a\u5e02\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u5462\uff1f
\n\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5411\u60a8\u5c55\u793a\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ea7\u54c1\u5916\u89c2\u76f8\u4f3c\u5ea6\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u6a21\u578b\u66ff\u4ee3\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002.
\n\u5b83\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u65e7\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e0a\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e00\u4e2a\u805a\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u68c0\u6d4b\u9500\u552e\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7528\u5206\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u5176\u6620\u5c04\u5230\u4ea7\u54c1\u7279\u5f81\u4e0a\uff0c\u518d\u6839\u636e\u6a21\u578b 1 \u548c\u6a21\u578b 2 \u7684\u8f93\u51fa\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u6cd5\u63a8\u65ad\u65b0\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u60c5\u51b5\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>

\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u9884\u6d4b\u65b0\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u5982\u6b64\u56f0\u96be\uff1f<\/h1><\/div>

\u80cc\u666f\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/h2><\/div>

\u4ea7\u54c1\u53d1\u5e03\u5728\u96f6\u552e\u4e1a\u975e\u5e38\u5e38\u89c1\u3002\u6d88\u8d39\u7c7b\u5546\u54c1\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5929\u6027\u662f\u4f7f\u5176\u4ea7\u54c1\u591a\u6837\u5316\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u5438\u5f15\u987e\u5ba2\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ea7\u54c1\u9002\u5e94\u884c\u4e3a\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4e4b\u5f00\u5c55\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f8b\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u4f1a\u63a8\u51fa 50-60 \u79cd\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\uff08\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\uff09\u3002.
\n\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u521b\u65b0\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u54c1\u724c\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u5df2\u6709\u54c1\u724c\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u53e3\u5473\u7684\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u4e3a 2 \u4e2a\u6708\uff09\u540e\uff0c\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u5c31\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u5e38\u89c4\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002.
\n\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u751f\u6210\u65b0\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982<\/p>\n<\/div>

  • <\/i><\/span>
    \u73b0\u6709\u4ea7\u54c1\u91cd\u91cf\u7684\u8f7b\u5fae\u53d8\u5316<\/div><\/li>
  • <\/i><\/span>
    \u73b0\u6709\u4ea7\u54c1\u914d\u65b9\u7684\u7ec6\u5fae\u53d8\u5316<\/div><\/li>
  • <\/i><\/span>
    \u66f4\u6362\u4ea7\u54c1\u751f\u4ea7\u5de5\u5382<\/div><\/li><\/ul>

    \u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u662f\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7ffb\u65b0\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97 2017 \u5e74\u81f3 2019 \u5e74\u9500\u552e\u989d\u4e3a data \u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u53d1\u5e03\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5927\u7ea6\u6709 150 \u79cd\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>

    \u4e3b\u8981\u6311\u6218<\/h2><\/div>

    \u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u6bcf\u5468\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765 14 \u5468\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u00a0\u4ed3\u5e93\/\u6bcf\u65e5\/\u4ea7\u54c1<\/strong>\u00a0\u6c34\u5e73\u3002.
    \n\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5e94\u7528\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u00a0\u53d1\u5c04 7 \u5929\u540e<\/strong>, \u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u53ea\u6709 7 \u5929\u7684 data \u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765 14 x 7 = 98 \u5929\u7684\u9500\u552e\u60c5\u51b5\uff01\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u5e94\u7528\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u00a0\u53d1\u5c04\u540e 60 \u5929<\/strong>. .\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u5728 2 \u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u5c06\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a \u201c\u5e38\u89c4\u4ea7\u54c1\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u7684\u9500\u552e\u5468\u671f\u5df2\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684 \u201c\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8d35\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u4ea7\u54c1\u6027\u8d28\u30022 \u4e2a\u6708\u540e\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u4e3a\u5e38\u89c4\u4ea7\u54c1\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff09\u5c06\u53d6\u4ee3\u521b\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u53d1\u5e03\u4ea7\u54c1\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u51b3\u5b9a\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5bf9\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u9500\u552e\u5468\u671f\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>

    \u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u7684\u5386\u53f2 data<\/h3><\/div>

    \u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u7684\u5386\u53f2 data \u6570\u91cf\u5c11\u5f97\u53ef\u601c\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u505a\u51fa\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3 data \u96c6\u8fdc\u8fdc\u5c0f\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\/\u6d4b\u8bd5 data \u96c6\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3 data \u53ea\u6709\u51e0\u5468\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5374\u8981\u5bf9 98 \u5929\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>

    \u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u9500\u552e\u5f88\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a<\/h3><\/div>

    \u6b64\u5916,\u00a0data \u5728\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u5934\u51e0\u5468\uff0c\u9500\u552e\u60c5\u51b5\u5f80\u5f80\u975e\u5e38\u6df7\u4e71\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d8b\u52bf\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u6025\u5267\u53d8\u5316<\/strong>. .\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u4f1a\u5728\u5934\u4e24\u5468\u5927\u91cf\u8ba2\u8d2d\u8fd9\u79cd\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u4ee5\u586b\u5145\u8d27\u67b6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a \"\u521b\u65b0\"\u3002\u00a0\u5c65\u884c\u9636\u6bb5\u3002.\u00a0<\/em>\u4e4b\u540e\uff0cW3 \u548c W4 \u7684\u8ba2\u5355\u91cf\u666e\u904d\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8ba2\u5355\u91cf\u53c8\u7565\u6709\u589e\u52a0\u3002.
    \n\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5f88\u591a\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a\u4e00\u4e9b\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u5728\u5176\u5546\u5e97\u9500\u552e\u7684\u5934\u51e0\u5468\u5e76\u4e0d\u7545\u9500\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5feb\u901f\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u51cf\u5c11\u8ba2\u5355\u3002\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5927\u91cf\u8ba2\u8d2d\u67d0\u79cd\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u800c\u5236\u9020\u5546\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8ba2\u5355\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u6599\u5230\u4f1a\u6709\u5982\u6b64\u5927\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u3002\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u51e0\u5468\u91cc\uff0c\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u5927\u91cf\u8ba2\u8d27\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u672a\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u4ea4\u4ed8\u7684\u8ba2\u5355\u91cf\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>\"Image\"

    \u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u6709\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea7\u54c1\u5f00\u53d1\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>

    \u8bc4\u4f30\u6807\u51c6<\/h2><\/div>

    \u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u4e0e\u5e38\u89c4\u4ea7\u54c1\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u6307\u6807\uff08\u5168\u56fd\/\u5468\u7ea7\u522b\u7684 W+1 \u548c W+2 \u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u7387\uff09\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n<\/div>\"Image\"

    \u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u00a0\u9884\u6d4b\u65e5\u671f<\/em>\u00a0(\u6211\u4eec\u4f5c\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65e5\u671f\uff09\u7684\u53d1\u5c04\u65e5\u671f\u3002.
    \n\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ece D+7 \u5230 D+49 \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u65e5\u671f\u7684 W+1 \u548c W+2 \u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u76d1\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8bb0\u5206\u5361\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n<\/div>\"Image\"

    \u6211\u4eec\u6dfb\u52a0\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ef4\u5ea6\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9700\u6c42\u8ba1\u5212\u4eba\u5458\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u6295\u653e\u7684\u524d\u51e0\u5468\u76d1\u63a7\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6267\u884c\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u5728\u524d\u51e0\u5468\u63d0\u4f9b\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u907f\u514d\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u7684\u8865\u8d27\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u6295\u653e\u540e\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u6210\u529f\u6295\u653e\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>

    \u5efa\u8bae\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/h1><\/div>

    \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7ecf\u5178\u7684 ML \u65b9\u6cd5\u6548\u679c\u4e0d\u4f73\uff1f<\/h2><\/div>

    \u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a \u201c\u5c0f data \u201d\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684 data \u4f53\u79ef\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\u3002.
    \n\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u52a9\u63a8\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981 2-3 \u5e74\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9500\u552e data \u6765\u68c0\u6d4b\u603b\u4f53\u8d8b\u52bf\/\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u81f3\u5c11\u9700\u8981 2-3 \u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217 data \u6765\u5bf9\u4e00\u79cd\u4ea7\u54c1\u8fdb\u884c \u201c\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff1b\u6211\u4eec\u7684 XGBoost \u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4ea7\u54c1\u51e0\u5468\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9500\u552e\u989d\u3002.
    \n\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e0a\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a XGBoost \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u903b\u8f91\u5982\u4e0b<\/p>\n<\/div>

    • <\/i><\/span>
      \u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4ea7\u54c1\/\u56fd\u5bb6\/\u6bcf\u65e5\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e1a\u52a1\u89c4\u5219\u5bf9\u4ea7\u54c1\/\u6bcf\u65e5\/\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u89e3\u3002.<\/div><\/li>
    • <\/i><\/span>
      \u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e0e\u6838\u5fc3\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u4f46\u591a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u5373\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u53d1\u5e03\u65e5\u671f\u3002.<\/div><\/li>
    • <\/i><\/span>
      \u6211\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u4ea7\u54c1\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u57f9\u8bad\/\u6d4b\u8bd5<\/div><\/li>
    • <\/i><\/span>
      \u6240\u6709\u5728 2019 \u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u90fd\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5176\u5934\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u9500\u552e\u989d\u653e\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u96c6\u4e2d<\/div><\/li>
    • <\/i><\/span>
      \u6240\u6709\u5728 2019 \u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u90fd\u5728\u6d4b\u8bd5\u96c6\u4e2d\u3002.<\/div><\/li>
    • <\/i><\/span>
      \u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u6b21\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u8bad\u7ec3\u5230\u9884\u6d4b\u65e5\u671f\u7684\u524d\u4e00\u5929\uff08D+7\u3001D+14 \u7b49\uff09\u3002<\/div><\/li><\/ul>

      \u4f46\u7ed3\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u7406\u60f3\uff01\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u5f7b\u5e95\u6539\u53d8\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>\"Image\"

      \u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u6ca1\u80fd\u62ef\u6551\u4e16\u754c<\/h2><\/div>

      \u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528 XGBoost \u5b8c\u5168\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u7528\u4e00\u4e9b\u8001\u5f0f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\uff08VARMA\u3001SARIMAX\u3001Prophet \u7b49\uff09\u8bd5\u8bd5\u8fd0\u6c14\u3002\u4e0e boosting \u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u3001\u66f4\u6613\u4e8e\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u9002\u5e94\u7a81\u7136\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u53d8\u5316\u3002.
      \n\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4ea7\u54c1\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5148\u77e5\u6a21\u578b\uff09\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u56fd\/\u6bcf\u65e5\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u548c\u4e0a\u9762\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u5c06\u8bad\u7ec3\u591a\u6b21\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u8bad\u7ec3\u5230\u9884\u6d4b\u65e5\u671f\u7684\u524d\u4e00\u5929\uff08D+7\u3001D+14 \u7b49\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9 14 \u5468\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002.
      \n\u4f46\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u548c\u4e0a\u9762\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u5c3d\u4eba\u610f\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u540c\uff1a\u6ca1\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u5386\u53f2 data\uff01\u5386\u53f2\u592a\u6d45\uff0cdata \u592a\u4e71\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u65e0\u6cd5\u7406\u89e3\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u5e76\u505a\u51fa\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>\"Image\"

      \u57fa\u4e8e\u5916\u89c2\u76f8\u4f3c\u5ea6\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u805a\u7c7b\uff1a\u5f25\u8d5b\u4e9a<\/h2><\/div>

      \u7531\u4e8e\u6700\u521d\u7684\u4e24\u6b21\u9884\u6d4b\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u5b8c\u5168\u6362\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u3002.
      \n\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u4e86 2017 \u5e74\u81f3 2019 \u5e74\u6240\u6709\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u8bb8\u591a\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u5728\u5404\u81ea\u4e0a\u5e02\u7684\u524d\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u90fd\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u9500\u552e\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u8fd9\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u840c\u751f\u4e86\u6839\u636e\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e0e\u65e7\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u5176\u4ed6 data \u540c\u884c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u8bba\u6587\u4e5f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff081\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u66f4\u52a0\u575a\u5b9a\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u3002.
      \n\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5305\u62ec 3 \u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u6b65\u9aa4<\/p>\n<\/div>

      \u6839\u636e\u9500\u552e\u989d\u5bf9\u65e7\u521b\u65b0\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7ec4 - Data \u8303\u56f4\uff1a2017 \u5e74\u81f3 2018 \u5e74\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5305\u62ec<\/h3><\/div>

      \u5176\u539f\u7406\u662f\u6839\u636e\u65e7\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u5f52\u7c7b\u4e3a\u540c\u7c7b\u4ea7\u54c1\u7ec4\u3002\u540c\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e2d\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u9500\u552e\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4e86\u89e3\u65e7\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u63a8\u65ad\u5355\u4e00\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9500\u552e\u60c5\u51b5\u3002.
      \n\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8f93\u5165 data \u662f\u00a0MinMax \u65e7\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u5934 5 \u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\u7d2f\u8ba1\u9500\u552e\u989d<\/strong>. .\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u7814\u7a76\u7d2f\u8ba1\u9500\u552e\u989d\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u805a\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u4e86\u89e3\u6bcf\u79cd\u4ea7\u54c1\u4f55\u65f6\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u9500\u552e\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u7d2f\u8ba1\u9500\u552e\u989d\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u4e9b\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u5f62\u72b6\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u9500\u552e\u91cf\u5374\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u5f52\u5165\u540c\u4e00\u805a\u7c7b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u3002.
      \n\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e0e\u00a0K-Means \u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u00a0K \u53c2\u6570\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u00a0\u8f6e\u5ed3\u7d22\u5f15<\/em>.\u6700\u4f73\u6570\u91cf\u4e3a K=4\u3002.<\/strong>\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4e86\u00a0\u6b27\u51e0\u91cc\u5f97<\/em>\u00a0\u548c\u00a0DTW\u3001,\u00a0<\/em>\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6b27\u51e0\u91cc\u5f97\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u6ee1\u610f\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>\"Image\"\"Image\"

      \u6839\u636e\u4ea7\u54c1\u5c5e\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u4ea7\u54c1\u96c6\u7fa4\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b - Data \u8303\u56f4\uff1a2017 \u5e74\u81f3 2018 \u5e74\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u5305\u62ec<\/h3><\/div>

      \u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\u627e\u5230\u4ea7\u54c1\u6240\u5c5e\u7fa4\u7ec4\u4e0e\u5176\u5c5e\u6027\uff08\u5982\u5c3a\u5bf8\u3001\u54c1\u724c\u3001\u53e3\u5473\u7b49\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587 data\uff08\u5982\u53d1\u5e03\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u5a92\u4f53\u5ba3\u4f20\u7b49\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8054\u7cfb\u5c06\u5728\u5206\u7c7b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e0b\u627e\u5230\u3002.
      \n\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u4ea7\u54c1\u5c5e\u6027\u548c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6587 data\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u6b64\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u5c1d\u8bd5\u9884\u6d4b\u521b\u65b0\u96c6\u7fa4\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u56de\u7b54\u4ee5\u4e0b\u95ee\u9898\uff1a......\uff1f
      \n\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4e8b\u5148\u77e5\u9053\u521b\u65b0\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u5c5e\u6027+\u60c5\u5883 data\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u9884\u6d4b\u8be5\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e0a\u5e02\u540e\u7684\u9500\u552e\u884c\u4e3a\uff1f<\/em><\/strong>
      \n\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u7684 data\uff08\u5927\u7ea6 100 \u4e2a\u4ea7\u54c1\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ea7\u54c1\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7b80\u5355\u7684 BaggingClassifier \u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\/\u6d4b\u8bd5\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a 75%-25%\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u00a084% \u7684 F1 \u5206\u6570<\/strong>\u00a0\u5728\u6d4b\u8bd5\u96c6\u4e0a\u3002.
      \n\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ea7\u54c1\u5c5e\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u80fd\u5426\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7fa4\u7ec4\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u5546\u4e1a\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a<\/p>\n<\/div>